Sunday, 30 January 2011
James Delingpole Makes a Grade A Tit of Himself on Horizon Pt II
Sorry, but @JamesDelingpole deserves mockery ‘cos he has the arrogance to think he knows more of science than a Nobel Laureate
Oh bloody boohoo. Delingpole, who ironically is not averse to resorting to a bit of playground abuse (libtards) is trying to set himself up as the victim of some kind of Twitter smear campaign of abuse for his noble stance on climate change. Now let me make it clear, I don't approve if he has received threatening messages, but bloody hell he can't half give it but is incapable of taking it. He has essentially used his blog to promote the idea that climate scientists are colluding in a scam to extort trillions of dollars from a gullible Joe Public. That he somehow has somehow he has seen through the tissue of lies that some of the most qualified climatologists in the world have failed to notice. These are big claims, so you might expect to get a bit of flack for stating it. Sorry James that's how the cookie crumbles mate. As I said he has taken a metaphorical cricket bat around the chops, and as everyone knows when the debate goes tits up resort to straw man arguments. Let's take a look at some of Jameses.
"Yet in the opinion of Singh, the worldwide Climate Change industry is the one area where the robust scepticism and empiricism he professes to believe in just doesn’t apply. Apparently, the job of a journalist is just to accept the word of “the scientists” and take it as read that being as they are “scientists” their word is God and it brooks no questioning or dissent"
This shows James has little understanding of how either to critically appraise scientific research properly and what scepticism is. Possibly it is the result of those with a journalistic background being attracted to holding contrarian views from what they perceive as an aloof "elite" Delingpole appears to believe "scientists" are some monolithic cult who dictatorially decide from on high what is scientifically orthodox and what isn't. The vigorously researched evidence for AGW was simply not obtained in that manner. It is not unreasonable for a qualified scientist to take at face value the "views" of an unqualified layman who doesn't appear to know what science is.
"There’s a “consensus” on global warming. It’s immutable and correct. And anyone who disputes it is a vexatious denier informed by nothing but ignorance and who deserves nothing other than to be hounded and bullied and abused by the Guardian, the Independent, the BBC, Simon Singh’s Twitter mob, Ben Goldacre’s Twitter mob, and the shrill nest of paid-for trolls who infest the comments below this blog not to present a reasoned case but merely to disrupt and offend."
There is a consensus amongst scientists, a very rigorous one supported by shitloads of evidence to back it up. I shall repeat this again loud and clear.
SCIENTIFIC CONCENSUS IS NOT THE SAME THING AS CONVENTIONAL WISDOM OR DOGMATIC ORTHODOXY. NOT AT ALL!!!
Thanks for listening!
Well you can split hairs over what you think the motives of the AGW sceptics may be, but I take the philosophy of Johann Hari. All people deserve respect, all ideas don't. Oh and don't accuse your opponents of trying to rubbish the cause; and then do just that in the same paragraph.
"Well I’m sick of it."
Blog about something else then.
"What sickens me is the hypocrisy of people who claim to be in favour of speech, claim to believe in empiricism, claim to be sceptics yet refuse to accept room for an honest, open debate on one of the most important political issues of our time."
Nurse had a debate with you my friend. Horizon asked you on to do that and you fucked it up. Want some credibility, stop relying on shitty research.
**"My case is not that I “James Delingpole have taken a long hard look at the science of global warming and discovered through careful sifting of countless peer-reviewed papers that the experts have got it all wrong.”
If you are going to accuse the folks who wrote these papers of some sort of cover up, I suggest you start swatting up a bit. Bloody hell if you want to stick your neck out, do the homework.
"What I am saying, and I say almost every day, is that the evidence is not as robust as the “consensus” scientists claim; that there are many distinguished scientists all round the world who dispute this alleged “consensus”;"
How would you know? You haven't read the bloody evidence. You just bloody admitted it!
"that true science doesn’t advance through “consensus” and never has;"
Well quite possibly. But it's a bloody good sign of an accurate theory. Newtons third law works just as well today as it did in old Isaacs time.
"that there are many vested interests out there determined and able to spend a great deal of money by making out that the case for catastrophic, man-made global warming is much stronger than it is."
Yeah because high petrol prices and and end to cheap flights have always been real vote winners. Anyway if a scientist did discover that AGW wasn't occurring it would be the find of the century. You'd be lauded, showered with cash and grants from the oil companies. There sending the Nobel Prize your way as well. Real life isn't like a Michael Chrichton novel.
"and because they are not issues which require an exclusively scientific knowledge to understand. They just require the basic journalistic skill of being able to read and analyse."
But a sciencey background sort of helps. Anyone can read a scientific paper, but an unqualified journalist can make mistakes with scientific papers. Melanie Philips for instance didn't realise that Cochrane papers were specifically designed to criticise scientific papers, so she jumped to the wrong conclusions over what was said about the quality of Andrew Wakefields detractors findings. That is why I am all for opening science up to the greater public and journalists who have to report scientific stuff to their readers, but often fail to do so very well.
"Yet despite apparently knowing nothing more about me and what I do than he has learned from a heavily politicised BBC documentary, and maybe heard from his mob of Twitter bully chums or read in the Guardian, Singh feels able to decide that Paul Nurse is right on this issue and I’m wrong. Well I don’t call that an evidence-based argument. I call that dishonest, thoughtless and – given the high ethical standards Singh claims to represent – outrageously hypocritical."
Yes, as just because you haven't actually read the peer reviewed papers on the subject, doesn't necessarily mean you can't loftily proclaim that it's all one huge con by the people who wrote them, and have people give you a round of applause for it.
"“If my cause is really so powerful and right and true, how come its response to any kind of criticism is not to engage with it through argument but merely to try to silence it with censorship, appeals to authority, crude character assassination and establishment cover ups?”
This reasoning is how; inevitably- these kinds of things can self sustain themselves. If they do take you on, they are the scary "establishment" trying to bully the heretics. If they don't take you on, they are trying to hush you up and censor you. The MMR causes autism and Intellegent Design proponents trot this very same argument out, and because it is so superficially plausible on one level, that is why pseudoscience can be so persist ant on the flimsiest of evidence to actually support it. So it is with trepidation that I quote Delingpoles closing words on the whole affair*
"This has been a bruising week for me. But in the long term, I have a strong suspicion, it is going to do far, far more damage to the BBC, to Sir Paul Nurse (and, by extension, to the integrity of the Royal Society) than ever it has done to me."
Pseudoscience, the gift that keeps on giving.
Thursday, 27 January 2011
James Delingpole Makes a Grade A Tit of Himself on Horizon (Part I)
Monday, 11 October 2010
I Appear to Have Completely Missed the Boat.
and Harre explored attitudes among first year undergraduate psychology students, with questionnaires designed to probe belief about the causes of mental health problems, and responses on 6-point scales to statements like “I would be less likely to become romantically involved with someone if I knew they had spent time in a psychiatric hospital”. People who believed more in a biological or genetic cause were more likely to believe that people with mental health problems are unpredictable and dangerous, more likely to fear them, and more likely to avoid interacting with them. An earlier study in 1999 by Read and Law had similar results.
In 2002 Walker and Read showed young adults a video portraying a man with psychotic symptoms, such as hallucinations and delusions, then gave them either biogenetic or psychosocial explanations. Yet again, the “medical model” approach significantly increased perceptions of dangerousness and unpredictability.
In 2004 Dietrich and colleagues conducted a huge series of structured interviews with three representative population samples in Germany, Russia and Mongolia. Endorsing biological factors as the root cause for schizophrenia was associated with a greater desire for social distance.
And lastly, more compelling than any individual study, a review of the literature to date in 2006 found that overall, biogenetic causal theories, and labelling something as an “illness”, are both positively related to perceptions of dangerousness and unpredictability, and to fear and desire for social distance. They identified 19 studies addressing the question. 18 found that belief in a genetic or biological cause was associated with more negative attitudes to people with mental health problems. Just one found the opposite, that belief in a genetic or biological cause was associated with more positive attitudes
That is pretty depressing findings. That people who are prone to a genetic view of human behaviour are more likely to distance themselves from people with mental issues, and worse seem to think that on some level people so afflicted are "prisoners of their genes." or potentially unreformable and lost causes - prisoners of their own DNA, and seen as more dangerous than people who don't subscribe to the genetic view, who may not be as willing to write them off.
Now I want to say that I don't take the view of our hypothetical "genetic" person above, in regards to those who are suffering from disorders such as these, but I think Ben's closing statements should be heeded.
"Blaming parents is clearly vile. But before reading this research I think I also assumed, unthinkingly, like many people, that a “biological cause” story about mental health problems was inherently valuable for combating stigma. Now I’m not so sure. People who want to combat prejudice may need to challenge their own prejudices too."
Seconded.
Sunday, 3 October 2010
Peter is the Gift that keeps on Giving
"The latest propaganda for the non-existent complaint ‘ADHD’ was torn to shreds on Radio 4’s Today programme by Oliver James, despite highly unhelpful interruptions by the presenter Justin Webb, who gave the pro-ADHD spokeswoman a free run. ‘Evidence’ of a genetic link is nothing of the sort.
(THAT TODAY DEBATE IS HERE AT 2:21:00 INTO THE PROGRAMME)
Even if it were, the fanatics who want to drug normal children and excuse our society’s selfish, horrible treatment of them, have to solve this problem. How can you have a ‘genetic link’ to a complaint for which there is no objective diagnosis? What is it linked to?"
"Evidence" he is very reticent to highlight in the article, and that James does not cite the sourse of in the interview. He is right it isn't "evidence" of a direct link between the gene studied and ADHD, just that there was a possible causal link discovered, which the researchers have admitted. Hitchens has only a rudimentary grasp of how science works, in his mind it must either be a direct link or not at all. All or nothing, which is pretty much counter to the way the incremental scientific method often operates.
"What is it linked to?" he asks, in regards to something that has no concrete objective diagnosis. Well the answer to his rhetorical question is the criteria put down by comparing case study notes of disorders like this, to come up with as close as a set of coherent symptoms to identify and provide diagnostic criteria for a disorder that has certain common similar behavioural patterns in different people. It's actually quite common that scientific terms may not have a cast iron objective definition that encompasses them all. For instance there is no fully objective criteria to identify something as a metal, and no rigid set of properties that define a celestial body as a planet, but we don't just say "fuck it, they don't exist then." Hitchens absolutist stance on everything shows how little he actually grasps what science is.
I just really get so hacked off with these pundits who play all these ad hominem, straw men - bum brained philosophical parlour games to make themselves look cleverer than they are, about stuff they know nothing about. It's purely because ADHD and genetic theories of behaviour don't fit into Hitchens world view, nothing more - that he opposes them and calls those who dent this view as "fanatics". Should stop trying to make out that his articles are something they aren't
Don't hold your breath!
Thursday, 30 September 2010
A Brief Post on the "Genetic ADHD" Findings.

Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Good News About the Ozone Layer

The CFC's creating the hole in the ozone layer was one of the most famous popular environmental focal points of the 1980's, yet was and still is rather misunderstood by many. It was a tragic tale of a very promising bunch of compounds having the ability to unleash a terrifying chain of events under the right conditions, which would lead to one of the most surprising examples of scientific unforeseen consequences. The hole in the ozone layer was a big concern in the 80 and 90's and led to Montreal being enacted to curb but not fully stop CFC's as well as things like freon and halon fire extinguishers dumping this stuff into the stratospheric ozone layer. As I said it does still remain a not well understood phenomena in parts of the lay population. The hole (it is actually more of a zone of depleted ozone, than a literal hole in the sky.) is sometimes blamed on man made climate change, whilst it is really a different topic altogether. Though the two do have some interlapping points, which really take us on other trajectories elsewhere. Was this why the Daily Star proclaimed that this story "proved" Global warming [their words] was just "hot air"? Many of the comments on the Expresses report of the story seem to confuse the two issues as one. So what is all this ozone malarkey then?
Thursday, 10 June 2010
Prince Charles and Hot Air

The speech focuses on [what he sees as] the need to apply the wisdom of "Traditional Spirituality" to combat climate change. The talk isn't a call to arms to follow Islamic practices to combat climate change as some have claimed. But is a discussion on the need to heed "traditions" which emphasised the unity of man and nature , to allow us to live in harmony with our environment - not just relying on the "materialistic rationality" of the contemporary scientific method, which elevated man beyond nature (most biology textbooks would disagree!!) and caused the problem in the first place, by borrowing from ying; to pay yang .... or something.
Now I don't have a problem with such a well known figure highlighting climate change, and indeed the perverse way the third world bears the brunt of it. Good on him for not being put off by the vocal deniers as well. However like many speeches he gives on scientific things like climate change; medicine, and technology -he has to pepper the few sensible points he makes with a lot of rather strange concepts about "soul" and "wisdom of nature." He seems to have this idea that nature has some "essence" or "spirit" that Western thought has forgotton (or hubristicly chooses to ignore.) but our ancestors, and the mystic cultures of the "East" still recognise and nurture. What he fails to grasp is that when he berates science and its "empiricism" for ignoring the "soul", is that science is (by definition) under no obligation to do so. He's making that same mistake about science. That it is just another ideology and belief, and is there to provide an all encompassing world view. It isn't! Science is just a (very effective) means of studying the world. There is no onus in factoring in unfalsifiable things like the soul, that is just a matter of opinion, and that is what Charles should be told before he sounds off.
Here's a few excerpts of what he said;
" Over the years, I have pointed out again and again that our environmental problems cannot be solved simply by applying yet more and more of our brilliant green technology – important though it is. It is no good just fixing the pump and not the well. When I say this, everybody nods sagely, but I get the impression that many are often unwilling to embrace what I am really referring to, perhaps because the missing element sits outside the parameters of the prevailing secular view. It is this “missing element” that I would like to examine today. In short, when we hear talk of an “environmental crisis” or even of a “financial crisis,” I would suggest that this is actually describing the outward consequences of a deep, inner crisis of the soul. It is a crisis in our relationship with – and our perception of – Nature, and it is born of Western culture being dominated for at least two hundred years by a mechanistic and reductionist approach to our scientific understanding of the world around us. So I would like you to consider very seriously today whether a big part of the solution to all of our worldwide “crises” does not lie simply in more and better technology, but in the recovery of the soul to the mainstream of our thinking. Our science and technology cannot do this. Only sacred traditions have the capacity to help this happen."
He tacitly admits it is just an opinion of his here. The speech is loaded with gratuitous self pity that no-one takes his received wisdom at anything more than face value (I'd say he was being generous to himself. I doubt many listen to practically anything he has to say on this matter.) He doesn't seem to understand that no one is obliged to take an unsubstantiated opinion at more than face value, and usually people don't. It's pretty much a rant about how everything would be great if it wasn't for horrid old technology.
"In general, we live within a culture that does not believe very much in the soul anymore – or if it does, won’t admit to it publicly for fear of being thought old fashioned, out of step with “modern imperatives” or “anti-scientific.” The empirical view of the world, which measures it and tests it, has become the only view to believe. A purely mechanistic approach to problems has somehow assumed a position of great authority and this has encouraged the widespread secularisation of society that we see today. This is despite the fact that those men of science who founded institutions like the Royal Society were also men of deep faith. It is also despite the fact that a great many of our scientists today profess a faith in God. I am aware of one recent survey that suggests over seventy per cent of scientists do so. I must say, I find this rather baffling. If this is so, why is it that their sense of the sacred has so little bearing on the way science is employed to exploit the natural world in so many damaging ways? I suppose it must be to do with who pays the fiddler. Over the last two centuries, science has become ever more firmly yoked to the ambitions of commerce. Because there are such big economic benefits from such a union, society has been persuaded that there is nothing wrong here. And so, a great deal of empirical research is now driven by the imperative that its findings must be employed to maximum, financial effect, whatever the impact this may have on the Earth’s long-term capacity to endure. This imbalance, where mechanistic thinking is so predominant, goes back at least to Galileo's assertion that there is nothing in Nature but quantity and motion. This is the view that continues to frame the general perception of the way the world works and how we fit within the scheme of things. As a result, Nature has been completely objectified – “She” has become an “it” – and we are persuaded to concentrate on the material aspect of reality that fits within Galileo’s scheme."
The empirical based view of the world he complains about is the only view science can take. BECAUSE IT IS A METHODOLOGY NOT A BELIEF SYSTEM!! Ditto for religious scientists (70% sounds WAY too high, but he doesn't quote the source.). They don't apply the two together, because they are two different things! As for a decline in the belief in souls, and an increase in secularisation with tech / science. That tends to happen. People rely less on supernatural explanations, as things can be explained objectively. Most of the time anyway.
"I hope you can just begin to see my point. The utter dominance of the mechanistic approach of science over everything else, including religion, has “de-souled” the dominant world view, and that includes our perception of Nature. As soul is elbowed out of the picture, our deeper link with the natural world is severed. Our sense of the spiritual relationship between humanity, the Earth and her great diversity of life has become dim. The entire emphasis is all on the mechanical process of increasing growth in the economy, of making every process more “efficient” and achieving as much convenience as possible. None of which could be said to be an ambition of God. And so, unfashionable though it is to suggest it, I am keen to stress here the need to heal this divide within ourselves. How else can we heal the divide between East and West unless we reconcile the East and West within ourselves? Everything in Nature is a paradox and seems to carry within itself the paradox of opposites. Curiously, this maintains the essential balance. Only human beings seem to introduce imbalance. The task is surely to reconnect ourselves with the wisdom found in Nature which is stressed by each of the sacred traditions in their own way."
The only view of "our deeper place in the world" that gets unfashionable is Charles opinion of humans place in it. Look in one of the many good books on popular biology / nature, for a good (and well researched too) narrative on humans role in nature. It's a zillion times more interesting than the iffy new age cobblers, based on nothing but his royal opinions, on offer here."Such instruction is hard to square if all you do is found your understanding of the world on empirical terms alone. Four hundred years of relying on trying and testing the facts scientifically has established the view that spirituality and religious faith are outdated expressions of superstitious belief. After all, empiricism has proved how the world fits together and it is nothing to do with a “Supreme Being.” There is no empirical evidence for the existence of God so, therefore, Q.E.D, God does not exist. It is a very reasonable, rational argument, and I presume it can be applied to “thought” too. After all, no brain scanner has ever managed to photograph a thought, nor a piece of love, and it never will. So, Q.E.D., that must mean “thought” and “love” do not exist either!"
Oh Charlie! What shall we do with you! Any study of animal / human behaviour will show evidence for love (or more accurately some kind of altruism / getting ones rocks off combination that we would class as "love" ) Ditto anything written, spoken and published, kind of hints that something we call "thought" exists. Both may be subjective terms, but science can show that the brain / hormones produce an empirically observed sensation, which can then contribute to sensations that can be called these things by the philosophers and poets. etc.. The evidence for God is bit more thin on the ground though.
"The Modernist ideology that has dominated the Western outlook for a century implies that “tradition” is backward looking. What I have tried to explain today is that this is far from true. Tradition is the accumulation of the knowledge and wisdom that we should be offering to the next generation. It is, therefore, visionary – it looks forward.
Tradition is a broad school. A bunch of customs and idioms passed down through the generations. It can be visionary, profound, or complete bollocks. Starting something that becomes a tradition may be an attempt to look forward. But respecting traditions is - by the nature of tradition, "backward looking". Where the hell else are we supposed to get them from?
The entire speech (and there is a ton more of it) is pretty much in the same vein. Berating science for becoming to big for it's boots, and for technology and secularism making us lesser people, whilst materially better off. He also accuses scientists of putting profit before principle, which isn't very nice. Now perhaps our more materialistic world has made us greedier and less in tune with nature (though we seem these days to increasingly value environmental issues and technological innovations to curtail the damage man has inflicted on the planet. I also don't recall that our "spiritual" ancestors had a green party either.). If the cause of some of the damage is by the products of science and technology (and can also be objectively analysed. You can't do that with a spirit, which negates his point about science pursuing that line of action. Hey I didn't write the speech!!), then can we not use the same instruments to assess and negate the damage? Shouldn't Charles have a bit more grace, and explain that it is only his opinion that our "spirits" being out of kilter is the root cause?
For all Charles' self deprecating grumbles about how he is the shunned rebel spouting the unfashionable and unorthodox. I doubt he would have the self awareness to admit that this is all just his opinion on how to tackle these issues, and that he doesn't expect anyone to give him any more intellectual credence with that in mind. I think he would be saddened to learn that a) In a scientific context, his arguments are bunkum, and show he doesn't understand what the scientific method is.. Which is a bit a bummer if you have a lecture that goes on for 30 years about the abuse of the scientific method. b) he just isn't a good speaker, or polemic. I truly am being generous to him with my criticisms. It really is shooting fish in a barrel. Every line in that speech is utter dross. It is hard to argue with Johann Hari, when he says that the only reason any of his stuff gets airtime at all is due to his royal status. Even with all the trappings his role entails him too, that we don't have, he still has trouble with what he says getting airtime! It is testament to the appalling quality of his writing, that someone as high profile as the heir to the throne can write this, without seeing the forest for the trees. I really would stick to opening supermarkets!
"I am slightly alarmed that it is now seventeen years since I came here to the Sheldonian to deliver a lecture for the Centre that tried to do just this. I called it “Islam and the West” and, from what I can tell, it clearly struck a chord, and not just here in the U.K. I am still reminded of what I said, particularly when I travel in the Islamic world – in fact, because it was printed, believe it or not, it is the only speech I have ever made which continues to produce a small return!"Saturday, 5 June 2010
Michael Hanlon. How do you do it?

Tuesday, 25 May 2010
MMR Scare. The Swan Song.

"We did not prove an association between measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine and the syndrome described,"
However the authors did say in the article that they believed thier was a possible link between MMR and the bowel problems and autism. That is LINK, not a causation. But from this point onwards, possibly the mother of all health scares in the last 30 years was unleashed. A health scare that had next to nothing to justify the furore that eventually ensued.
In an ideal world, Wakefields team should have published their work, the BMC should have taken one look at it, told them it was parp, and to actually rely on the bricks of scientific research, rather than the straw of anecdote, and a personal hunch. But no! - This is the real world. Wakefield held a press conference, where he said (and this is the smoking gun for the anti-MMR camp.) that he had doubts about the MMR (fair enough. More research before saying that to the media though.) vaccine, and that he believed that single vaccines should be used instead. And that is the clincher. HE SIMPLY HAD NO SCIENTIFIC BASIS TO JUSTIFY THAT CLAIM. THEIR IS A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A POSSIBLE LINK, AND A PROVEN ONE. It was; for any intent and purpose -an opinion, just that. He wasn't; as some have claimed -a martyr, or Galileo figure, standing up to the soulless minions of scientific orthodoxy. He was a man with an opinion. And he should have expressed that more. But by then it all kicked off in the press. The numbers of children who had been vaccinated dropped from 92% in the year before the press conference to 79% in 1998. Some figures put the vaccination levels at as low as 60%. Confirmed cases of increased levels measles were reported, and two infant deaths ascribed to measles as well. In the media storm, it was overlooked that subsequent research had failed to reproduce the link. 13 of the authors of the paper had disowned it's findings. Much larger studies in Japan and Finland failed to show any correlation between MMR vaccines and increased levels of autism. Nor did later findings by the GMC about Wakefields conduct in his "research" do much to dent his "martyr" status in some sections of the press. You know boring stuff like:
*Performed unnecessary and painful tests on children without proper consent. Extracting spinal cord fluid from Lumbar puncture, and invasive bowel and colon examinations without any surgical need to do so.
*Paying young children at a birthday party £5 a time for samples of their blood.
*He had not disclosed that he had received money from solicitors to fund studies to confirm the fears of parents who believed that their children had been harmed by the vaccine, and had vested interests in those funding MMR alternatives.
This should have been a cautionary tale of a rogue doctor who told all and sundry that they should not use a vaccine, knowing that he had no evidence to back up his warning. And what was worse was that he had performed invasive surgery on children under false pretences at times, and appears to have done so to promote a rival vaccine. There are few things more he could have done to have broken every standing rule of his profession. So no folks he ain't a martyr. No one in any profession would (and should) have walked away scott free.
It is hard to disagree with Ben Goldacre when he says that Wakefield isn't solely responsible for this whole debacle. It is regrettable that those in the media who went along with this scare (whether through scientific illiteracy or cynicism without any evidence to back it up.) will likely walk away from the whole affair without the full role of their guilt in perpetuating the scare being made apparent. Wakefield may have set the ball rolling, but those in the media from the BBC to (especially) the Mail, who took this stuff at face value without checking its accuracy. I'm sure Peter Hitchens and Melanie Phillips, the two pied pipers of this pap, slapped themselves on the back in how polemic and dangerous they were being in standing up to those science bullies. Perhaps they should have done the research into the topic (medical affairs tend to be quite important. Especially when childhood health care is concerned. Objective analysis doesn't count for a whole lot to many parents, in regards to their young kids.) before nailing their colours to the mast. I don't want to sound pedantic, but shouldn't someone have pointed out to the likes of Fiona Phillips, Jenny Mccarthy, Jim Carrey, Carol Vorderman and Lynda Lee Potter that there is an important distinction between the scientific method, and having "a bit of a bad feeling" or "I'm a Mum, I know whats good for my kids" about analysing the MMR vaccines safety. I don't blame the parents [who believe MMR vacines were the cause] of autistic kids. It's very easy to believe that their child's affliction had a root cause other than blind bad luck. The delivery of the injection at the age when symptoms of autism would start to manifest, injection or not, can seem to provide a post hoc explanation for their autism, and worse - and perhaps why the MMR thing was so emotive, because the parents feel that they are to blame for their child's autism, in allowing the triple vaccination, in spite of objective evidence. This can explain comments like this:
"I saw my son deteriorate before my eyes after MMR in 1989. No one will ever convince his father and I that the MMR was not to blame for his on-going problems and, remember. when a child is disabled in effect the whole family is disabled as everyone's lives are affected for the worse. Dr. Wakefield deserves praise for his efforts."
This heartfelt comment exemplifies why, I think; Wakefield got his martyr status in some circles. Without the objective evidence of the MMR link to autism, parents who unconsciously (wrongly) blame themselves for their child's disability, rather than just plain bad luck, can transfer this feeling to anger towards "evil pharma", and a "medical cover up" that hid the dangers of the vaccine. The media cheerleaders of Wakefield were guilty (IMO) of compounding these parents misery, by pushing this story. We needed perhaps more salient medical experts pointing out that the comments above whist heartrending, are based on grief and emotion, not any scientific validity, or merit. The importance of collective herd immunity in cutting childhood diseases and the dangers to unborn by the measles infection should have been more vocal at the time. Especially in this more cynical age, where these kind of large projects are seen as by their very definition, dodginess embodied.
Fortunately the affair is over for now. I don't think Wakefields disgrace will dent his fully converted hard core following, but I doubt their ranks will swell much more, after the full extent of his malpractice is laid bare. I also expect his friends in the media will see this as the next "Gallileos retraction" before the orthodoxy, if they cover the outcome of it. The uptake of MMR vaccines is rising again to pre-scare levels, and although the deaths of the kids was terribly tragic, we are fortunate it was not higher. But this affair lays bare the dangerous levels of scientific illiteracy in society at large, and the extent that objective evidence is held in contempt, vis a vis emotive analysis. It highlights that baseless scares could manifest again, and next time the effects could be far worse, to a society that doesn't have the facts at hand.
Friday, 23 April 2010
Happy 20th. Hubble (For Tomorrow)


