As today's post concerns numbers and statistics, I ended up remembering the memorable equation that an old genius of arithmetic (i.e just me attempting a lame attempt at ironic humour) taught me on "Tabloid headline statistics" that:
Numbers of Migrants headlines + Jobs + Tenuously Assigned Percentage + Jobs (subset: stealing our) = Utter bollocks + Ruddy faced tabloid reader choking on breakfast cereal x Incoherent badly spelt comments about immigrants taking over on websites / 300 odd comments in the green.
Yes whenever we see a Daily Express headline with some scary looking figures lifting the lid on the true extent of the "barbarian hordes" foothold on "our jobs", it is a good idea to follow the "proof" back to the source, in order to see how accurate (or better still how inaccurate) these figures are. Now I'm no big fan on digging through statistics, so if you want a meatier analysis of the stats try Left Foot Forward, Hagley Road or for a full breakdown of the actual statistics, try office of National Statistics which were the genesis for the Spectator article that spawned the Express headline above.
Now this article basically came about by the following two partially related sets of statistics. Just shy of 1.67 million new jobs (thought the Express has been shy on what classifies as a job for the purpose of this article.) have been created since 1997. However the number of workers not UK born has increased by 1.64 million. Therefore they've come to the conclusion that foreigners have nicked all the new jobs. However they neglected to mention that they've been working on selective data. The following groups are excluded or conflated, from the Spectator article.
• Excludes UK workers over state pension age – a method that excludes 1,419,000 workers. (5 % of workforce.)
• Conflates “non-UK born” with “nationality” – there are many (around 1,432,000) non-UK born (5% of the workforce now falls of the radar.)
Excludes public sector jobs – meaning that around 20 per cent of the jobs (public sector jobs excluding those in financial corporations) in the entire UK economy are discounted.
The researchers for the article in the Express have no excuse for "missing" the last point, as it's splashed across the graph at the top of the Spectator article, as bright as a summers day. Call me old fashioned, but "forgetting" to mention that large swathes of the working population don't even register on these figures, does seem to indicate that this number was shoehorned to appeal to anti-immigrant sentiment, not to highlight the true state of the jobs situation. Not even taking into account any of these factors; which would alter the true number of UK / non UK born employment figures:
* An increasingly aging population.
* More Working age Britons working / living in the EU, and elsewhere
* Student and Temporary Workers.
* No attempt to factor in correlations between incomers, and emigres.
* An increased public sector (not factored) that the press are at pains to highlight.
* The Express is sub edited by burks.
It actually transpires (see Left Foot Forward link provided) that the real number of new jobs since '97 that are done by non - UK nationals is the slightly lower 49.7%. If this discrepancy of figures is, as the press are keen to point out; "contributing to the debate." Then perhaps that debate has been derailed. The press will always complain that they are being called "racist" for questioning the benefits of immigration, and that debates are being stifled in the name of political correctness. Like anything else, there are problems with immigration as well as benefits. Housing and accommodating, in a time of diminishing is one area that comes to mind (even general population increase from anyone, not exclusively immigrants will increase this.) We have issues of immigrants being exploited in the work place. Incentives to big corporations to encouraging investing in local employment in deprived and unemployed areas. Communication and language gaps etc. They are all issues that should be highlighted. As well as the many benefits of immigrant workers, (and increased mobility.) and the frequently overlooked fact that all over the world, and in all 5 continents people are moving more freely than ever. People are more able to uproot from their birthplace, and do so. Almost all countries are subject to a more fluid demographic shifting. But articles like these just derail any of this. It seems that the press themselves are guilty of obfuscating the immigration question, and actively giving aid and comfort to the xenophobes and other unsavoury base prejudices. That isn't an open debate, it's just pandering to peoples worst instincts.
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